Chemical equipment failure probability correction model based on the Multi-layer Grey Evaluation Method

Abstract

The basic leak probability about chemical equipments cannot be distinguished the influence of many factors on the failure probability in petrochemical field. Due to the defects, in this study, by applying Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and introducing grey theories, the chemical equipment failure probability correction model based on multi-layer grey evaluation method was proposed. At the same time, by applying AHP, six 1st level indicators including safety management, production equipment, process, production environment, natural environment and personal quality were analyzed, as well as analyzing twenty-seven 2nd level indicators. The importance of various influencing factors in the chemical equipment failure system was obtained. Then according to grey system theories to calculate its correction factor value, and applying the correction coefficient to correct the failure probability. By taking the vinyl chloride tank of a chlor-alkali company as an example, through calculation and analysis, the results indicated that the corrected factor value of failure probability for the tank was 3.335, the correction coefficient was 1.25, and the actual failure probability of the tank was larger than the basic leak probability. It provides a new way to the failure probability correction, and has a theoretical significance and practical value on accurate calculation of the quantitative risk evaluation.